Economic Impacts of Thai-U.S. FTA: A Case of Table Grape Import (in Thai)
Thailand imports a large volume of table grape from the United States of America annually. The Thai-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will reduce tariff on imports and thus import value changes. This will affect related sectors of the Thai economy. This study forecasts direction and scale of the impacts. The analysis is based on theory of demand, forecasting technique and input-output table. Various secondary data sets of year 1991-2006 were used. The result found that the relative price of grape and real capita income elasticities of demand are -1.1 and 4.7, respectively. The relative price was expected to decrease while the real capita income increase. This would raise the import value and lead to the accumulation of 19,520.4 million baht from 2007 to 2017. This would decrease the value of production in Thai economy by 53,480.7 million baht. The fruit orchard sector would be most affected followed by the agricultural services and fertilizer sectors. A policy should be developed that enables the adversely affected sectors to cope with the impacts of the FTA.
Keywords: FTA, impact forecasting, international trade, import tariff, table grape
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