Impacts of Crisis Events on International Tourism Demand in Thailand (in Thai)
Akarapong Untong, Vicente Ramos, Javier Rey-Maquieira and Mingsarn Kaosa-ard
This study assesses the impacts of nine major crisis events during 2001-2009 on the declining number of foreign tourists in Thailand. The SARIMA with intervention models and X-12-ARIMA are applied. The results show that each of the crises gave different effects on the number of tourists depending on the duration of situation, type of crisis, and country of origin. The impacts from the disease outbreaks were greater than those from other crises, but the degrees of impacts are likely to decrease if the similar outbreaks occur. In contrast, the impact from the internal political chaos was relatively small for its first time crisis, but it will be greater if it happens again. The Tsunami gave a big impact but the recovery rate was faster than that of other crises. The 9/11 event had made a minimal impact on Thai tourism. Based on the results, it is suggested that solving the internal politics should be the first priority if it aims to enhance Thailandís tourism industry. In addition, the measures used for solving crises should be designed to fit with each of foreign tourist marketsí diverse responsiveness.
Keywords: crisis events, international tourism demand, SARIMA, intervention models
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